What will the Middle East look like in the next decade? Impossible to know. But there are some clues. The next few weeks will be telling.
November brings with it several possible water-shed moments. Elections in Egypt (or not). The fall of the Assad regime in Syria (or not). Peaceful transition in Libya (or not). Declaration of a Palestinian state by the UN (or not). Additional riots in other countries (Jordan, Morocco, Lebanon).
What we are looking at is not merely a 'spring' but more of a 'four seasons' if you will. What will be of the Arab revolution? Several outcomes are possible:
- A liberal, Western style democracy (unlikely)
- Ongoing military dictatorship (possible)
- Islamization in varying degrees of radicalism (probable)
- Failed states, fragmentation, civil war and ongoing LIC (depends on homogeneity)
To seek and acquire legitimacy the regime will fall back on common denominators, strengthen national identity (Islam and Arab unity) and unite the population against a perceived common enemy (Israel and the West). The incitement, hate education, blatant anti-Semitism and hostility towards Israel that have been prevalent in the Middle East for decades, even in Egypt with whom Israel has a signed peace treaty, is...More >>