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democracy in the Arab world

What will the Middle East look like in the next decade? Impossible to know. But there are some clues. The next few weeks will be telling.

November brings with it several possible water-shed moments. Elections in Egypt (or not). The fall of the Assad regime in Syria (or not). Peaceful transition in Libya (or not). Declaration of a Palestinian state by the UN (or not). Additional riots in other countries (Jordan, Morocco, Lebanon).

What we are looking at is not merely a 'spring' but more of a 'four seasons' if you will. What will be of the Arab revolution?  Several outcomes are possible:

  • A liberal, Western style democracy (unlikely)
  • Ongoing military dictatorship (possible)
  • Islamization in varying degrees of radicalism (probable)
  • Failed states, fragmentation, civil war and ongoing LIC (depends on homogeneity)

To seek and acquire legitimacy the regime will fall back on common denominators, strengthen national identity (Islam and Arab unity) and unite the population against a perceived common enemy (Israel and the West). The incitement, hate education, blatant anti-Semitism and hostility towards Israel that have been prevalent in the Middle East for decades, even in Egypt with whom Israel has a signed peace treaty, is...More >>

Italy alone took in 30,000 "immigrants" from Tunisia in the last few months following the revolutionary overthrow of the old regime. Thus far, Europeans have been unable to stem the tide of humanity from failing states (not "failed", exactly, but well on their way thanks to rampant corruption, "big man" politics and cultural decline).

These kinds of numbers constitute a threat to Europe that some see as akin to the mass migrations of Germanic tribes into the weakened Roman Empire -- or in some ways, the migration of Europeans into the Americas then populated by aboriginal empires and fiefdoms.

Italy and other southern European nations have taken a short-sighted view to this abuse of its borders -- essentially, giving visas and amnesties to the economic queue-jumpers. Rather than face up to their responsibiities as the gatekeepers of Europe, they allow these masses of people to wander north into the relatively more prosperous welfare states of France, Germany and Denmark. Let the chumps up north deal with these de facto colonizers -- we've got other problems to deal with, like how we're going to spend the northerners' Euros on our pensions for our still-dark haired retirees.

...More >>

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