Afghanistan. After The Surge
Afghan President Hamid Karzai may be unfamiliar with the Western proverb, "be careful what you wish for." His bi-polar rants lambasting NATO and American forces as virtual occupiers and war criminals surely have made US President Obama's decision on a significant troop withdrawal even easier.
The expected drawdown of American troops from the Afghan surge is going ahead. At least 30,000 troops are headed home from the frontier by sometime in 2012. Many more are likely to depart by 2014.
Karzai's government has had 18 months to get its' act together. Even more important than making the army the backbone of the state, Karzai was supposed to tackle corruption and start delivering real services to all Afghans within government-controlled areas.
No one said it was going to be easy. But no one was realistically hoping for Afghanistan to transform into Denmark overnight, either (Bolivia or Congo would have been a significant step up). That said, the government has largely failed in its goals. It is not seen as legitimate, or even necessarily preferrable to the Taliban, in the contested areas. Making things worse, Karzai has personally alienated his international allies on countless occasions with wild conspiracy theories and legislation intended to appeal to the broad demographic of Taliban-friendly Afghan hillbillies.
At a cost of $2 billion a day and 1,630 lives, observers can hardly fault the US for not putting in enough resources into the region, or for expecting some return. And of course, the effort has resulted in at least one war aim being accomplished: Al Qaeda is crippled throughout Afghanistan and Pakistan, perhaps down to as few as 400 fighters (according to Fareed Zakaria). That doesn't count the Taliban's manpower, which continues to pour in from Pakistan. But from a national security perspective, the reality is that the USA is less concerned (though not unconcerned - let's be fair, here) about Taliban thugs burning down a school in Kandahar than Al Qaeda once more launching attacks in the American heartland.
But again, success in this area is owed to America and the rest of ISAF. The Afghan government hasn't done its job. Yes, it's doing a better job than so-called ally Pakistan, which actively facilitates international terrorism. But infinitely more resources have been poured into Afghanistan. America and the rest of the world have the right -- indeed, the duty, to ask the Afghan government to do more.
Afghanistan's government has effectively squandered the surge. And the country is running out of time.
Jonathon Narvey is the Editor of The Propagandist
